NEW DELHI, (AFP)— Global dependency on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for crude oil will rise in the next five to 10 years as output by non-OPEC nations falls, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Friday.
“We have seen an increase in non-OPEC supplies. But in the mid-term, non-OPEC production will decline,” Nobuo Tanaka, the agency’s executive director, told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in New Delhi.
“So dependency on OPEC oil will increase,” he said.
The agency’s forecasts are generally regarded as bellwether indicators for the energy industry.
OPEC’s 12 members, which include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, pump about 40 percent of the world’s crude oil.
Last month, the IEA forecast world oil demand will grow by 1.8 million barrels a day year-on-year to 86.6 million barrels a day in 2010.
Much of the extra oil demand in 2010 is set to be soaked up by non-OPEC supply, which is expected to rise due to higher-than-expected output in Russia, the United States, and China.
Tanaka said the global oil market is currently well supplied.
“Stock levels in OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries is still high,” he said. “The OPEC has a very good spare capacity at this moment.”
He said it was difficult to project what action is the OPEC going to take during its October 14th meeting in Vienna.
It is anticipated that there will be no change to OPEC production quotas in the October meeting.
“We wish the OPEC will take a closer look of where fundamentals are going and take a quick action,” Tanaka said.