LONDON (Reuters) – OPEC oil output is expected to rise this month due to higher supply from members including Nigeria, Iraq and Angola, a consultant said on Wednesday.
OPEC’s 10 members subject to output limits, all except Iraq and Angola, are expected to pump 26.9 million bpd, up from 26.8 million bpd in June, said Conrad Gerber, head of Petrologistics, which tracks tanker shipments.
The estimate, while showing rising supply in some OPEC countries, indicates top world exporter Saudi Arabia is keeping a cap on output in spite of a jump in oil prices towards a record high above $78 a barrel.
“There’s no major opening of the taps,” Gerber said. “They fear that if they opened the taps, prices would slide.”
Nigeria is raising supply in July by about 100,000 bpd to 2.12 million bpd, Gerber said. The increase reflects fewer disruptions to the country’s oil industry from militant attacks in the Niger Delta.
Iranian oil output is also on the increase — climbing by 50,000 bpd to 3.95 million bpd, according to the Geneva-based company.
Overall supply from the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is set to rise 300,000 bpd to 30.7 million bpd, Petrologistics said, as Iraq and Angola pump more.
Iraqi output is on course to reach 2.08 million bpd, up from 1.94 million bpd in June, because the country is exporting some Kirkuk crude from its northern fields.
Storage tanks at the Turkish port of Ceyhan receive sporadic deliveries of Kirkuk by pipeline from Iraq’s northern oilfields. Iraq sold 3 million barrels for shipment in July, the first such sale since January.
Angolan output, rising steadily as new fields off the country’s coast come on stream, is on course to climb by 30,000 bpd to 1.69 million bpd in July.
By contrast, output in Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, is expected to hold steady at 8.6 million bpd, Petrologistics said.
OPEC, source of more than a third of the world’s oil, agreed to curb supply by 1.7 million bpd, or about six percent, last year in two steps. The second stage took effect from February 1.
Despite July’s rise from the 10 members party to the output curbs, output remains lower than when OPEC started cutting production in November. OPEC said the 10 were pumping 27.5 million bpd before the cutbacks began.
The exporter group is next scheduled to met in September to decide production policy.