The trouble that Hassan Nasrallah finds himself in today is too great for Mr. Jumblatt to fix. Hezbollah has lost its reason and has committed a number of self-inflected mistakes and things have gotten worse with the publication of the Der Spiegel report that accuses the group of being involved in the death of [former Lebanese Prime Minister] Rafik al-Hariri.
Bin Nasrallah, who previously announced that he would not be giving any new speeches, retracted from this position and gave a speech on Friday that was evidence of the trouble that Hezbollah is going through. [In this speech] Bin Nasrallah sought protection from Iran, and its Supreme Leader, he stated that “Khamenei has never been miserly towards Lebanon.” This represents a [public] revelation of a secret that is already well-known, namely Hezbollah’s subordination to Iran. This speech also acknowledged that should Hezbollah and its agents win at the forthcoming elections, this would represent an end to Lebanon’s relationship with the international community. Nasrallah tried to reassure the Lebanese by saying that Iran would be their supporter. He said that in the event of an electoral victory he would reveal to them who would aid them in arming the Lebanese military, and there can be no doubt that he means Iran.
Will Jumblatt’s statement regarding the Der Spiegel report [and Hezbollah’s innocence] save Bin Nasrallah?
The answer is no!
Jumblatt’s statement was [aimed at] saving Lebanon and the [forthcoming] fateful elections, his intervention only postpones the inevitable, namely the Lebanese people’s decision of whether they want to pledge allegiance to Iran’s Supreme Leader, or choose a stable Lebanon away from Tehran.
The trouble that Nasrallah is having speaks for itself. Today Nasrallah speaks of Walid Jumblatt’s courage, yet in May 2008 he described Jumblatt as a “thief, killer, and a liar.” This is not the first contradiction [made by Nasrallah]. When Hezbollah embroiled Lebanon in the 2006 War that resulted in 1200 Lebanese casualties Nasrallah accused his critics of being allies of Israel, however he later retracted from this [position] and said “Had I known the size of the Israeli response, I would not have kidnapped the two soldiers.” Despite declaring victory, his forces have been pushed back behind the Litani River, and he must now go through international forces if he wishes to confront Israel.
The contradictions and trouble does not stop here. After describing the 7 May Hezbollah occupation of the Sunni neighborhoods in central Beirut as a “day of glory”, Bin Nasrallah later described this same day as a tragedy. This is extremely confusing, particularly since Nasrallah claimed that he was capable of ruling over a hundred countries like Lebanon.
Reality shows that Hezbollah is the elephant in the room, and that it is in major trouble, this is why Ahmadinejad rushed to support the movement. Hezbollah is also still facing the issue of its sleeper cell in Egypt, and then there is the danger of the Hariri Tribunal, for it would have domestic and international impact should Hezbollah be formally charged [of involvement in al-Hariri’s death].
In the event of Hezbollah losing at the [forthcoming Lebanese] elections, the group will have been exposed domestically, whilst victory at these elections means international isolation, which is why Nasrallah is using the Iranian Supreme Leader. In addition to all of this, should the [Middle East] peace process be re-launched, and should Syria be involved, Hezbollah will be geographically and politically cut-off.
Whist if armed confrontation occurs between Iran [and another power], Hezbollah will find itself in an unenviable position; for how will Nasrallah convince the Lebanese that Lebanon must rush to Tehran’s aid?
And so is it still within Walid Jumblatt’s capabilities to rescue Nasrallah?
It is difficult, and perhaps even impossible.