When the mind is unable to function properly, dialogue stops, and when dialogue stops verbal confrontations begin, which in turn is a prelude to bloody clashes and physical violence. I would have liked to convey a rosy picture here, after the revolutionary breeze that past through the Arab Spring states, but unfortunately we are on the threshold of further acts of violence, demonstrations and bloodshed in the region.
In Tunisia, the internal escalation will continue between the radical Salafi forces on the one hand, and the Ennahda movement, political Islamic currents, liberal and socialist forces on the other. The Tunisian way of life, including the arts, music and personal freedoms, will be subjected to threats and confrontations within the new parliament and in the streets, squares and plazas, to an extent that threatens further bloodshed and losses in the field of tourism, which is considered one of the most important sources of income for the country.
In Egypt, there are three dangerous issues that could lead to a clash between the masses and the authorities:
First: the crisis of the constitution being resolved before the president is elected, which means that the supposed complete transfer of power before the 30th of June is a subject of doubt, danger and concern.
Second: the protesting supporters of some presidential candidates who have been permanently excluded from the election battle.
Third: this is the most dangerous; the day the court announces, barring further delays, its judgment in the case of former president Hosni Mubarak, his two sons, the former interior minister and his aides.
The worry is that if the judicial ruling is not satisfactory to the whims of some, or the wishes of the victims’ families, who lost their dearest possessions, then this may be an open invitation to ignite the Egyptian street once again.
As for Libya, reports suggest the complete failure of the project to disarm the alarming number of weapons in the hands of the tribes and rebels who fought the Gaddafi regime. The large quantities of weapons, without security control, and without a political project, are factors that could drive the country towards a frightening, tribal civil war.
As for the situation in Yemen, it is threatened with the secession of the south from the north, either naturally as a result of the current situation, or by the force if the central government in Sana’a seeks to defend its “unified” state, whereby it may be drawn to employ the Yemeni army to impose a fait accompli.
In Syria, the overwhelming grief helps people not to imagine the enormity of the bill that everyone will pay as a result of the madness of the ruling regime in Damascus, which continues to run the country through the barrel of a gun and with a bloodthirsty agenda.
There is a serious danger that the Syrian case may spill over into the Lebanese arena, particularly in the northern areas, with conflicts between the Syrian [regime’s] supporters on the one hand, and its opponents from the radical Sunni forces on the other. This would explicitly re-open the matter of political assassinations in Lebanon, putting those at risk who have not been targeted yet!