In America, they lie for tactical reasons, stating over and over that military action against Iran is unlikely. However in Iran, out of ignorance, they reiterate that American military action against their country is impossible because the US is “unable” to do so!
We say and hope our analysis is wrong. A possible military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities is in the final stages. Unless a political miracle occurs that revives the halted dialog between Iran and the international community, Iran and its neighboring countries should not be surprised by a scenario that includes American military action.
There are a number of common illusions in the Arab and Muslim mind in general, illusions that on several occasions in the past have been tried and proven unsuccessful. It was proven that the Arabs confuse their hopes with reality, and between what the other wants and what we think they are planning for.
There is an illusion that Iran is a huge military state with decisive striking power. This would be true if Iran was to confront one of its neighbors, but the fact is that in any confrontation between America and Iran, Iran would be a tiny helpless state. It will suffer what the Arabs suffered in 1967 and what Iraq suffered when Saddam stubbornly rejected all peaceful solutions. America will be able to impose its conditions. This has nothing to do with love or hatred. Geographically and historically, Iran is closer to us than America, and the cultural and historical relations we have with Iran outweigh our ties with America. Rather it is the facts, reality that show that the balances of power tilt flagrantly in favor of the United States and the Western alliance, particularly the European one!
Another illusion is that America is “rolling in the Iraqi mud.” I wish that the Arab world would not believe such a statement; Iraq is not another Vietnam, and America is able to conduct more than one war because of its huge political and technological capabilities.
Tehran needs to reconsider its political discourse. The clamor of hollow threats has not succeeded once in modern history. No one ever succeeded without using one’s mind and knowing one’s capabilities and acting accordingly, pursuant to the rule “God favors those who know their self worth”.
Israel has a nuclear arsenal but no Israeli official dares to mention Israel’s possessions of nuclear weapons; they even deny the existence of these weapons. In Tehran, they are still in the early stages of enrichment; yet we hear a language of threats, menace and stubbornness.
If only the Iranian leadership thinks of the interests of its peoples, seeks to understand today’s complicated international political equations and realizes that big words do not change political facts and that seeking practical alternatives and solutions with the international community is more feasible and useful than the antiquated words that think that louder voices mean a stronger argument!