Middle-east Arab News Opinion | Asharq Al-awsat

The Iranian Bull | ASHARQ AL-AWSAT English Archive 2005 -2017
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Russia and China have joined the other 13 developed and developing countries in a rare unanimous decision against the Iranian nuclear project, agreeing to impose sanctions under the ultimate article 41 under Chapter 7. Even countries that reassured Iran that they would stand against the UN resolution such as Russia and Qatar no longer held this position.

Through Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, we see a repeat of the image of Saddam Hussein, the day that he was misled by the rapture of demonstrations, the visiting delegations and the pledges from strong allied countries that said they would not permit international resolutions against the country. These acted as pain relievers allowing him to sleep soundly at night. We see that a number of countries are standing against Iran, including small states that are nevertheless extremely clever.

In the current arena the world sees Iran as a raging bull, sharpening its horns in order to attack the bullfighter in front of him; however the composed bullfighter is dedicated to examining the bull and its behavior. The countries that are apprehensive about enraged Iran know too well that the bull will not stand still in front of the red cloth. It will not sit quietly like cattle that are happy to graze but would rather charge. The small bullfighter depends not on his physical strength but rather on reading the bull’s mind concerning which direction it will charge in until the bull is worn out and taken down by the bullfighter. What drives strong Iran to adopt nuclear weapons when it is the world’s third richest country in terms of oil? What is it that pushes the country towards external wars when it is a country that is rich in resources yet is home to widespread poverty? Iran’s love for external warfare is what will exhaust the country; the proof is that it squanders oil revenue on conflicts in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine, taking one side against the other. Iran pays more than any other Gulf country to support activity, parties and movements.

The conflict with Iran is based upon analyzing the obvious behavior of the regime, similar to that of Saddam Hussein’s regime, knowing which move he would make next. I heard somebody make a prediction that Iran would respond angrily to the international community that condemned it. When the decision was made, he also said that Iran would discredit it and continue with the uranium enrichment program and build and install the 3000 centrifuges and that President Ahmadinejad would make a threatening speech. He added that he believes that Iran would respond by escalating its influence in Iraq, Gaza and Lebanon, or even further past those borders. He stated that Iran and its behavior would speed up confronting the mobilizing of international military and predicted that the major war that now seems inevitable would begin in approximately three or four years.

Undoubtedly, Iran is a difficult country, but it is like a raging bull in that it is predictable. According to its usual conduct, it will charge towards the red resolution thinking that it would scare the international community. It will seek to apply pressure through anarchy and destruction to attain the concessions it desires. We envisage that Iran will proceed with its nuclear weapons project and that every step it takes towards it is another step towards confrontation. Iran’s desire to enter the bullfight arena will increase the conflict and provide the required proof that containing Iran peacefully is impossible. Tehran’s behavior will prove to the world that Iran is a danger to the region, to the crucial energy sources and a danger to the whole world if it is allowed membership to the club of nuclear powers.