Khobar- What is China’s and India’s fuel of choice up till 2040? It is not oil as everybody predicts; instead, it is coal, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
OPEC released on Tuesday its annual report on oil prospects and mentioned scenarios of energy demands until 2040.
The report, released by OPEC, explained that coal will constitute half the share of the total energy mix in China and India, the two largest economies in Asia till then.
The long-term base scenario for the evolution of the energy market in OPEC’s report takes into account greater measures to limit climate change, but not full implementation of pledges made by countries.
In this scenario, greatest impact will be on the use of coal and then later gas, used particularly in electricity generation, which OPEC said “is not surprising given that policymakers are increasingly engaged in climate change mitigation initiatives”.
The report slashed its estimate of coal demand to 91.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2040, from 98.3 in last year’s report, although that still represents a jump from the 77.1 mboe/d of demand in 2014.
The estimate for gas demand in 2040 was cut to101.7 mboe/d from 111.5 mboe/d, but the demand is still seen soaring from the 59.6 mboe/d of demand in 2014.
Meanwhile, the estimate for 2040 oil demand was only trimmed to 99.8 mboe/d, from 100.6 mboe/d.
With demand of 85.1 mboe/d in 2014, crude is expected to see the slowest growth over the next two and a half decades.
“A declining share for oil in the energy mix is mainly the result of tightening fuel efficiency standards across most countries of the world,” said the report.
OPEC’s main scenario sees overall energy demand grow from 273.9 mboe/d in 2014 to 382.1 mboe/d in 2040, although is a drop from the 399.4 mboe/d it forecast last year.