PHILADELPHIA, (Reuters) – U.S. President George W. Bush said on Monday about 30,000 Iraqis have been killed since the Iraq war began and predicted this week”s election will not be perfect but will be part of a Middle East turning point.

&#34No nation in history has made the transition to a free society without facing challenges, setbacks and false starts,&#34 Bush said in a speech and question-and-answer session at the World Affairs Council in Philadelphia, striking a more realistic tone than he has sometimes in the past.

The speech was Bush”s third in a series leading up to the election as he tries to bolster support for his Iraq strategy in hopes of bringing home some U.S. troops next year if Iraqi military forces are ready to fight the insurgency.

In an interview with NBC”s &#34Nightly News&#34 program, Bush acknowledged the U.S. mission in Iraq has not gone as well as originally planned, when senior Bush officials had predicted U.S. troops would be welcomed as liberators.

&#34I think we are welcomed. But it was not a peaceful welcome,&#34 he said, while adding that a lot of Iraqis are glad the United States is there.

In another acknowledgment of a mistaken prediction, Bush admitted that Iraqi oil revenues were &#34not as great as we thought they”d be. Yet they”re substantial.&#34

Bush needs a relatively smooth showing during Thursday”s election in Iraq to show as a sign of progress and to counter daily news of suicide bombings and U.S. troop deaths — more than 2,100 since the start of the war — that have soured Americans on the war.

Bush predicted insurgent violence will not end with the election and said much work remains to make Iraq”s fledging democracy inclusive to all.

&#34This week elections won”t be perfect, and a successful vote is not the end of the process. Iraqis still have more difficult work ahead,&#34 he said, adding, &#34These enemies aren”t going to give up because of a successful election.&#34

Still, he said, with Iraqis turning out three times in crucial votes, &#34the year 2005 will be recorded as a turning point in the history of Iraq, the history of the Middle East, and the history of freedom.&#34

UNOFFICIAL ESTIMATE

Asked about the Iraqi death toll, Bush said about 30,000 Iraqis have been killed since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003. It was the first time Bush has publicly offered such an estimate. His aides quickly pointed out the president was not offering an official estimate.

&#34There is not an official U.S. government estimate,&#34 White House spokesman Scott McClellan said. He said the 30,000 figure was based on &#34public estimates cited by media reports.&#34

Ohio Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich demanded the Bush administration release all information it has on the number of Iraqi civilian deaths. &#34It is far past time for this sort of admission from this White House,&#34 he said.

Bush”s figure for the death toll among Iraqis was in the range given by Iraq Body Count, a U.S.-British nongovernmental group, which currently says between 27,383 and 30,892 civilians — rather than all Iraqi citizens — have been killed in Iraq since the invasion.

Its figures are based on media reports, which often fail to capture all deaths in the country. Other estimates, including one done by scientists and published in the medical journal Lancet, put the civilian death toll as high as 100,000.

Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan, the top Democrat on the Armed Services committee, said Bush should have sent a stronger message that Iraqis must make necessary political compromises and amend their constitution after the election to be more inclusive of Sunnis and avoid a civil war.

&#34The president today made a wishy-washy statement, in an area which requires clarity, certainty, strength, and that is, we must tell the Iraqis that we have done our part — we”ve done more than our part. Now it”s up to you to get your political house in order,&#34 Levin told a news conference.

Bush denounced the presence of prisons in Iraq &#34where mostly Sunni men were held, some of whom have appeared to have been beaten and tortured.&#34

&#34Those who committed these crimes must be held to account,&#34 Bush said.