London – With three once mighty clubs on the brink of League One, we examine how things got this bad – and what relegation will mean for the future:
BIRMINGHAM CITY
Why are they in this mess?
Simple, really – because of the ludicrous decision to sack Gary Rowett in December and replace him with Gianfranco Zola. At the time of Rowett’s departure, Birmingham were seventh, outside of the play-offs only on goal difference. By the time Zola fell on his sword, four months later, Birmingham had slumped to 20th, three points above the relegation places. Zola’s appointment showed what happens when owners and directors are seduced by a “name”. Panos Pavlakis, the influential club director, talked about Zola’s “pedigree, philosophy and ambition” and asked Birmingham’s supporters to “trust our judgment” as the board sought to “move in a new direction”. That direction was downhill. Fast.
Did anyone see this coming?
Birmingham’s owners back in Hong Kong didn’t, that’s for sure. Neither did Pavlakis, who said that appointing Zola would enable Birmingham’s fans to “embrace the future as we begin to implement the exciting vision of Trillion Trophy Asia [the club’s owners]”.
Alarm bells were ringing early on – Zola, with a brand of possession-based football that never looked like working, failed to win any of his first 10 games in charge. Yet it still seemed inconceivable that Birmingham, with such a healthy point haul from the first half of the season, could get sucked into a survival scrap. By the time that Derby, now managed by Rowett, won at St. Andrew’s on 8 April, the threat of relegation loomed large. Zola resigned nine days later, prompting Birmingham to turn to Harry Redknapp.
How damaging would relegation be?
“Armageddon” was the word Lee Clark used three years ago to sum up what relegation to League One would mean for his Birmingham side. They ended up surviving on the final day, courtesy of an injury-time equalizer at Bolton, but there was good reason to be concerned about the wider ramifications of relegation at the time, given that Carson Yeung, the club’s chairman, had just been imprisoned for money laundering.
The situation is not as dire now, yet there is still plenty of uncertainty surrounding the club. Birmingham supporters know next to nothing about Trillion Trophy Asia and the people who have the fate of their club in their hands. Relegation is the last thing anyone at Birmingham needs.
Can they bounce back straight away?
They did in 1995. Barry Fry’s first full season in charge, following a relegation, culminated in promotion from the third tier as champions. Redknapp, however, is highly unlikely to stay on as manager if Birmingham slide into League One and, bearing in mind what happened with Zola, could the owners be trusted to identify the right man to bring the club back to the Championship? And would the money be there, as it was in the mid-90s with David Sullivan and David Gold at the helm, to fund the signings needed to return at the first attempt?
BLACKBURN ROVERS
Why are they in this mess?
One word: Venky’s. It is approaching seven years since the Indian chicken processing company bought what was then an established, well-run Premier League club from the Jack Walker Trust. Apart from a two-year period of relative stability under Gary Bowyer – and even that was achieved under a transfer embargo while in the Championship – the Pune-based owners have overseen a steady and many fear terminal decline of a proud, historic club.
Their ruinous ownership has included a series of managerial mistakes, a lack of communication with supporters and executives, excessive contracts that are still being paid to players who are no longer at Rovers, selling off assets on the playing staff and rising debt. And that’s just a brief summation.
Did anyone see this coming?
A second relegation on Venky’s watch would come as no surprise to anyone bar the owners, who will issue the occasional statement about wishing to retain the club and restore it to the Premier League while reducing investment in the playing squad. In the last four transfer windows alone, Blackburn have raised £27.8m by selling Jordan Rhodes, Grant Hanley, Rudy Gestede, Shane Duffy and Tom Cairney, and spent merely £250,000 on one new signing, Derrick Williams. The other arrivals have been free transfers and loans.
Several supporters groups have been formed in protest to Venky’s and warned of the inevitability of relegation – and worse – while also turning their ire on the Football Association for allowing so-called fit-and-proper owners to wreak havoc. Attendance figures reflect the level of disenchantment. Ewood Park has the lowest attendance-to-capacity percentage in the Championship this season – 38.9 percent – and witnessed its smallest league crowd for 25 years in December: 9,976 against Brighton.
How damaging would relegation be?
Administration has been the fear at Ewood for several seasons now and a drop into League One would bring that threat closer. As always with Venky’s, uncertainty and confusion reigns. Paul Senior ruled out the prospect of administration when he was appointed director of footballing operations in January. At the club’s biannual meeting with supporters in March – when no one from Venky’s or their supposed liaison, Suhail Pasha, bothered to attend – Rovers’ finance director, Mike Cheston, could not give the same assurances.
Blackburn’s debt stands at more than £100m, parachute payments from the Premier League stopped at the start of this season and, despite “fit-and-proper” owners having to fund a club, Rovers have required short-term loans for working capital in recent years. As the majority of debt is an £87m loan from Venky’s, administration would appear a damaging path for club and owners alike.
Can they bounce back straight away?
Tony Mowbray has restored some solidity and hope to Blackburn since replacing Owen Coyle in February but a summer of upheaval beckons whether survival is achieved or not. Several first-team regulars are out of contract and the club’s most saleable assets have already departed, hence the continued spiral. An immediate return would be a tall order for any manager with their meagre budget expected to be cut further.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST
Why are they in this mess?
It all goes to the top of the club and the erratic ownership of Fawaz al-Hasawi. Under the Kuwaiti, Forest have been getting progressively worse every season, with eight permanent managers and three interim appointments in not even five years. Forest have had a full-time chief executive for only five out of Hasawi’s 58 months as owner. There is no chief scout and, until recently, no director of football and no real structure. There is a skeleton staff, a general sense of decay and Hasawi, the only director, has not been to a game at the City Ground since September. Forest, meanwhile, have had what the Nottingham Evening Post describes as a “standing appointment at the high court”, referring to all their unpaid tax bills and winding-up orders. Players have missed wages and talked between themselves about going on strike. It is a chaotic, fractured club, desperately in need of some expertise.
Did anyone see this coming?
Forest finished eighth in Hasawi’s first year, most notable for him sacking Sean O’Driscoll after a 4-2 win against Leeds had left his team just outside the play-offs. The following year they were 11th, then 14th and last season 16th. See the trend? They are on their third manager of the current season and, laughably, there was one point when the people in charge decided they should try luring Chris Hughton away from Brighton.
Nigel Clough did not want to work with Hasawi and talked a few days ago about how much his father would have disliked the way Forest are now run. Paul Heckingbottom, the manager of Barnsley, was another candidate – until, that is, he described Forest as a no-go zone for any sensible member of his profession. “What’s the point going there with it is as it is?” he asked. Mark Warburton, fortunately for Forest, was not so fussy and could turn out to be a shrewd appointment, having been lined up by the club’s prospective new owners.
How damaging would relegation be?
Forest’s supporters are often accused of living in the past because of their references to the glory years under Brian Clough but the memories of losing to Yeovil – in fact, conceding five at home to Yeovil – in the League One play-offs in 2007 are always there, too. The last time the club dropped down to League One, in 2005, it took them three seasons to get back up. But they are in a worse position now in terms of infrastructure and there is an awful lot of work that needs to be done behind the scenes.
On a brighter front, Gary Brazil’s outstanding work in charge of the academy has already seen a number of highly rated youngsters breaking into the first team. Without those academy graduates – look out for Ben Brereton in particular – Forest would probably be down already.
Can they bounce back straight away?
In January, Hasawi was on the verge of selling the club to two American businessmen who had provisionally put in place a new structure with Gary Rowett taking over as manager, Paul Mitchell joining from Tottenham as sporting director and major work planned for the stadium and surrounding area. Lo and behold, Hasawi decided that he did “not think this deal is in the best interest for the club” without any proper explanation. Four months on, Evangelos Marinakis might be inheriting a League One club if, as expected, the Olympiakos owner completes his own takeover. Marinakis has a dubious reputation but most Forest fans will be delighted just to see the back of their current owner. As the hapless Hasawi has said himself, his replacement will almost certainly be “more professional”.
The Guardian Sport