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Fitch Forecasts Growth in Turkey’s Economy in Q4 2017 | ASHARQ AL-AWSAT English Archive 2005 -2017
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Ankara- The US-based international credit rating agency Fitch has stated that it will revise its evaluation of Turkey’s economic outlook and growth estimates, citing the recently announced growth data of the second quarter, which includes changes from a number of international finance institutions that have revised up their forecasts.

Paul Gamble, the head of Emerging Europe in Fitch’s Sovereign Ratings Group, said they regard Turkey’s growth as relatively strong compared to other countries at similar levels, stressing that Turkey’s 5.1 percent growth in the second quarter was stronger than expected.

“In the coming weeks, we will reevaluate our key global forecasts. We will also look at Turkey in light of its strong performance,” Gamble added.

Gamble said that some slowdown in the economy is expected beginning next year, suggesting that the group regards Turkey’s growth as relatively strong compared to other countries at similar levels, adding that they expect the economy to grow by 4.7 percent at the end of this year and by 4.1 percent next year.

“Our forecast for this year is 4.7 percent. We’re looking at growth to slow to 4.1 percent next year. We’re a bit ahead of the curve. Our forecast was a pretty substantial upgrade in June. We changed our forecast from 2.4 to 4.7 in June,” he stated.

Gamble noted that Turkey showed resilience in terms of economic growth and added:

“I think in terms of Turkey’s external position, we saw pressure on the exchange rate, not [just] in the aftermath of the coup attempt but also in the last quarter.

“We saw shifting global conditions and in response to that there was a tightening policy by the Central Bank, and I think people have become more comfortable with the macroeconomic environment and political environment.”

Gamble added that there has also been good “investor sentiment” toward Turkey.

On the other hand, Turkey’s unemployment rate held steady at 10.2 percent in June, which covered the May-July period, unchanged from the levels of one month and one year earlier, data from the Turkish Statistics Institute (TurkStat) showed Friday.

The non-agricultural unemployment rate stood at 12.2 percent on average during the May-July period, the data showed, also unchanged from both a month and a year earlier.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 11.1 percent with a 0.2 percentage point year-on-year decrease.