London- As ceasefire in three to four regions becomes active within pursuit to reduce escalation, the fight between Syrian regime forces and factions of the Free Syrian Army as well as other Islamic factions calmed down. However, ISIS parties – in Eastern Syria – continue to fight and Tahrir al-Sham members are moving to Idlib where they will wait for their destiny to unveil.
This doesn’t mean that the war is over since there are potential conflicts and wars in the medium and long term, especially if the stable regions weren’t included in an urgent comprehensive political solution.
Washington considers that it has achieved a breakthrough with Moscow’s approval not to have non-Syrian troops in the south truce regions: Daraa, Qnaitra and Sweida. This means that groups supported by Iran and “Hezbollah” will withdraw 8-32 kilometers.
The Syrian south truce includes establishment of a supervision center in Amman, the opposition perseverance of its arms, determination of battle lines, commencement of trade exchange with regime regions, forming a local opposition council and possibly the return of refugees from Jordan or near the border.
However, the uncontent Israel makes war an option because this agreement has limited its warplanes capability to strike “Hezbollah” and Iranian organizations near Joulan or in the south.
Regime Forces Ambitions
Damascus plan to adopt a military resolution has not changed. It is still anticipating the opportunity to attack opposition regions and let everyone return to the state. Damascus also rejects existence of local opposition councils unlike Moscow’s stance and truce agreements.
Army and Militias
Reconstruction in regime-ruled regions has become a struggle because some Western states reject that unless there is an acceptable political solution and there is also the absence of financial capability of regime allies in Russia and Iran to compensate the destruction cost (more than USD250 billion).
Another war also looms in the horizon between new business men and war figures, in which both are competing to grab the biggest stake of the country’s future. Other possible wars are between Iran affiliated militias and the regime forces.
Idlib: between War and Isolation
In Idlib there are around 2 million civilians and more than 50,000 fighters. Washington assumes that there are thousands who belong to Qaeda, given that Jabhat al-Nusra is part of Qaeda. Ankara, however, seeks compromised solutions.