Extremist Challenges Trump to Send New Prisoners to Guantanamo

Obama

Washington – U.S. officials have revealed that Sudanese extremist leader Abu Khaybar, affiliated to al-Qaeda in Yemen, was captured by the Americans last autumn. He was held by another country, mentioned the New York Times.

Arresting Abu Khaybar caused intense debates in the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.

The Trump administration is considering what to do about Abu Khaybar, a decision that presents an early test of Trump’s campaign pledge to send terrorist suspects to the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

U.S. officials said that Abu Khaybar is facing terrorism accusations but given that he is a member of Qaeda then the U.S. administration can transfer him to Guantanamo so that military committees could decide his fate.

This procedure is preferable to Trump who criticized former U.S. President Barack Obama several times for being too soft on terrorists and promised to fill the prison in Cuba with “bad dudes.”

U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions said several times that these terrorist should not be referred to civil courts, stressing that Guantanamo Bay detention camp should remain open.

The lawyer of suspected 9/11 mastermind, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed said that he believes Trump is serious about using Guantanamo Bay to house more terrorist suspects.

“Any chance of closing the notorious site had been lost with the end of Barack Obama’s presidency,” said Defense lawyer David Nevin.

“Our president said he intends to keep Guantanamo open and put more people there, and I took his words seriously,” Nevin said at a Doha human rights conference. He added that he would take the president “at his word” after recent comments from Trump in which he vowed to fill Guantanamo with “bad dudes”.

When Obama first came to power in 2009, he vowed to close Guantanamo. But after eight years in power, he failed to do so in the face of Republican opposition and the reluctance of U.S. allies to take in the detainees. The current population at the prison is 41.

CIA Documents: Who Started the Iran-Iraq War?

Members of the Iranian Army march during a parade marking the anniversary of the beginning of the Iran-Iraq war, which lasted from 1980 to 1988, in Tehran, Iran September 22, 2015. REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi/TIMA

Washington- One of the certain failures of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is that it waited seven years after the Iran-Iraq war sparked to ask the analysts and experts in Iraqi and Iranian affairs a simple question: who started the war?

CIA analysts prepared a report on that matter but it was already too late. Instead of discussing a ceasefire, the CIA preoccupied its analysts with the debate of who started first. Despite the fact that Tehran kept claiming that it was dragged into this war, the CIA (if we consider it a third party) presented pieces of evidence in all its published reports that Iran was the party that insisted on continuing the war, not Iraq.

An International Tribunal to Determine Concepts

The CIA has discussed the beginning and the end of the eight-year war in two very important documents. Asharq Al-Awsat will tackle today the first document on the debate of who started the war while tomorrow’s document will discuss how the war ended.

The first document dates to Nov. 25 1987 and is classified as “very confidential.”

According to the document, Iran was firm to keep the war going until an international tribunal would determine who started the war, especially that each party was blaming the other.

Since 1980, Iran and Iraq agreed on the international tribunal to determine the offender in the war but the case gained huge attention since approving U.N. resolution 598 last July.

Iraq’s argument against Iran

Iraq claims that it invaded Iran in Sep. 1980 following Tehran’s attempts since the beginning of 1979 to oust the Iraqi regime. Baghdad affirms that Iran called a couple of times for rebelling against former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

Some Iraqi officials reported that Iran pursued to undermine the Iraqi authority though diplomatic and military campaigns.

Iran’s argument against Iraq

Iran affirms that its attempts to undermine the Iraqi authority are a justified response to the aggressive Iraqi policies. According to some Iranian officials, Iraq provided financial support to Arab and Kurdish minorities inside Iran. They also claim that their attempts ensued from the discrimination against Iraqi Shi’ites.

Revising pieces of evidence

At the beginning, Iraq was seeking to enhance relations with Iran after the Shah of Iran fled the country in Jan. 1979.

Relations started to tense after Iraq arrested Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr in June 1979 for suspicions of stirring chaos among Iraqi Shi’ites with Iran’s support.

It is almost certain that both parties provided huge financial support for the dissenters by the end of 1979 — both parties carried out terrorist operations against officials from the other party in 1980.

As bilateral relations worsened, Iraq started to prepare for the war during the first half of 1980.

The goal is compensations

Analysts said that “the U.N. secretary general will face a difficulty in forming an international tribunal that satisfies both parties.” The tribunal would try to reach a win-win decision.

Trump Backpedals from Reopening Black Site Prisons Abroad

President Trump signs addition executive orders in the Oval Office on Saturday. (Photo: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

Washington-The Donald Trump administration stepped back from an earlier draft executive order that would have called for a review on whether the United States should reopen overseas “black site” prisons, where CIA-led interrogation techniques often condemned as torture were used.

The black site prisons were used under President George W. Bush to detain terrorism suspects after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.

The New York Times, citing unidentified officials, on Saturday said the White House was circulating a revised version that did not have language that contemplated reopening the prisons.

A senior administration official confirmed the initial draft was no longer under consideration. “It was a transition draft never under serious consideration by the administration,” the official said. “We have abandoned that transition draft.”

The now-defunct CIA program used so-called enhanced interrogation practices, that were criticized around the world and denounced by former President Barack Obama and other senior U.S. officials as torture.

Neither Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo nor Defense Secretary Jim Mattis had been consulted about the draft order before it was leaked on Jan. 25, according to officials.

The CIA ran a prison where accused terrorists affiliated with al Qaeda, such as Abu Zubayadah and Abd al Rahim al-Nashiri were waterboarded in 2003, according to current and former U.S. intelligence officials.

Trump, who has pushed for tougher interrogation techniques, said he would consult with Pompeo and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis before authorizing any new policy.

Waterboarding — which is now banned for use under federal law — is intended to simulate the feeling of being drowned. A person is strapped to a board with the upper part of his body on a downward incline.

Then, a cloth is placed over the person’s mouth, and water is poured over his face, causing the person to have difficulty breathing and to feel as though his lungs are filling with water.

Federal Order Halts Trump’s Immigration Ban

Opponents of U.S. President Donald Trump's executive order travel ban greet international travelers at Logan Airport in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S. February 3, 2017.

Washington – The U.S. has reopened its airports for citizens of the seven Muslim countries included in President Donald Trump’s executive order.

Federal court said that the authorities had reactivated 60 thousand visas and their carrier can now enter the countries until Trump’s decision is reconsidered.

The ban lift occurred after federal judge in Seattle issued a ruling that temporarily blocks Trump’s executive order on immigration and refugees.

Trump’s executive order, signed Jan. 27, indefinitely blocks entry to the United States for Syrian refugees and temporarily suspends entry to other refugees and citizens of seven majority-Muslim countries.

Since the order, the State Department said it had canceled up to 60,000 visas of people from those nations.

On Friday, U.S. District Judge James Robart in Seattle ruled that Washington state and Minnesota had standing to challenge Trump’s order, which government lawyers disputed, and said they showed their case was likely to succeed.

“The state has met its burden in demonstrating immediate and irreparable injury,” Robart said. “This TRO (temporary restraining order) is granted on a nationwide basis.”

“The opinion of this so-called judge, which essentially takes law-enforcement away from our country, is ridiculous and will be overturned!” Trump said on Twitter early on Saturday.

Throughout the day, Trump continued to criticize the decision in tweets. Late Saturday, the president also said: “The judge opens up our country to potential terrorists and others that do not have our best interests at heart. Bad people are very happy!” he tweeted.

A source, who spoke on condition on anonymity, told Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper that the White House didn’t include agencies in the decision making before issuing the order. He added that the seven countries which were not named in the order, saying that it mentioned states that harbor terrorist cells, but this doesn’t mean that all its citizens are terrorists.

White House spokesman Sean Spicer released a statement late Friday saying they “will file an emergency stay of this outrageous order and defend the executive order of the President, which we believe is lawful and appropriate.” Soon after, the White House sent out a new statement that removed the word “outrageous.”

“The president’s order is intended to protect the homeland and he has the constitutional authority and responsibility to protect the American people,” the statement said.

Washington Attorney General Bob Ferguson earlier this week sued to invalidate key provisions of Trump’s executive order.

“The Constitution prevailed today,” Ferguson said, adding that: “No one is above the law, not even the president.”

Air France said on Saturday it had reopened U.S.-bound flights to passengers affected by the travel ban on nationals from seven Muslim-majority countries, after the executive order was temporarily suspended.

“Starting today we are implementing this court decision,” Air France spokesman Herve Erschler said.

“Nationals from the countries concerned are being authorized to fly once again to the United States, providing their papers and visas are in order,” he added.

Erschler said American government representatives in Paris had advised local airlines they could resume services for citizens of Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen.

Qatar Airways has made a similar decision and had issued an advisory to passengers.

Lufthansa airlines also told its passengers: “Visitors with a passport issued by seven countries — Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen — and holding a valid immigrant or non-immigrant visa for the U.S. are again allowed to travel to the U.S.A.”

Trump Tilts Supreme Court’s Balance 5-4 in Favor of Conservatives

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Fort Worth, Texas, February 26, 2016. REUTERS/Mike Stone

Washington- United States President Donald Trump has officially nominated Judge Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court.

Trump seized an unusual and early opportunity to restore conservatives to the majority of posts at America’s top court.

More so, Trump invited Gorsuch and his wife to emerge dramatically before an audience in the East Room of the White House.

For Trump, the selection is payback to evangelical Christian and conservative Republicans who backed his bid for the presidency — at times reluctantly.

Should the Senate approve Gorsuch, he will fill the seat made vacant by the death of Antonin Scalia nearly a year ago. Appointing another conservative to the court will tilt the balance five-to-four in conservatives’ favor.

Gorsuch could have a major impact on cases ranging from business regulation to gender rights to gun control, AFP reported.

Trump saw that instating Gorsuch, in a way, fulfills promises made to the public –“I am a man of my word. I will do as I say — something that the American people have been asking for from Washington for a very, very long time,” he said.

Given the advanced age of several sitting justices, Trump could potentially make several appointments during his term, shaping the court’s direction for a generation.

Much Democratic opposition to Gorsuch is likely due to the refusal by Congressional Republicans, following Scalia’s death, to give then former president Barack Obama’s court pick a confirmation hearing.

Democrats, who are in a minority in both chambers of Congress, are still smarting from Republican treatment of Obama’s pick, Merrick Garland.

Although Republicans hold 52 seats in the Senate, they need 60 to confirm a nominee.

That means Gorsuch must be able to win some Democratic votes, which is incidentally difficult given the great row over Trump’s ban on travelers from several Muslim countries.

“A little more than a week into the Trump presidency, the new administration has violated our core values, challenged the separation of powers, and tested the very fabric of our Constitution in unprecedented fashion,” said Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer.

Bloody Struggle among Comrades in Aden

April 20, 2015: People queue to fill containers with water amid an acute shortage of clean drinking water in Sana'a. Mohamed al-Sayaghi/Reuters

Washington- CIA archive declassified documents on People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen, previously known as South Yemen in the seventies and eighties of the past century. Any researcher specialized in Yemeni affairs will come to realize that this region was almost shut in front of the U.S. intelligence to an extent that the agency entrusted with spying over the world failed to figure out what happened in the bloody Massacre on the morning of Jan. 13 .

CIA Version of the South Incidents

On Feb. 4 1980, a memorandum consisting of three pages was sent from one party to another in the CIA. Most of the parties opposing the regime escaped, were executed or imprisoned. Yet, according to the memo, communication remained between regime members and exiled comrades in the north, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

The First Coup

In June 1969, the most radical wing of National Liberation Front (NLF) conducted the first coup that ousted the moderate leadership. In 1970, procedures were taken to diminish the tribal identity and prevent residents in the six provinces from using their tribal nicknames.

The memorandum described the seventies of the past century as a phase that witnessed a conflict over power between two eminent leaders in the country: Salem Rabih Ali and Abdul Fattah Ismail who took over power after the second coup in June 1978 when Salem was assassinated and many of his followers fled to the north.

Military Arrogance

Another CIA report tackled the rule of Ali Nasir Muhammad and the conflicts which introduced the massacre of 1986. Conflicts originated from the fact that Ali Nasir moved some of his rivals to positions that seemed important but were actually not.

Soviet Power

Moscow is unwilling to fall into the trap of Yemeni political conflicts, revealed the report. It did not want to risk its position in the country through siding with one party over the other. Direct intervention in political conflicts in Aden is unnecessary because Moscow has the ability to affect the policy of South Yemen through calls with the government – the soviet power in the Yemeni Socialist Party and the Yemeni government is huge.

January 13 Massacre

A report was issued on Jan. 14, one day after the massacre of Jan. 13 in Aden, however information it was blatantly insufficient.The report focused on the return of Abdul Fattah Ismail from Moscow shortly before the coup to prove that Moscow stood behind the coup. But later on, what happened appeared to be a massacre that targeted four leaders, not a coup.

Trump Orders Strict Immigration Screening

Trump

Washington – U.S. President Donald Trump chose the Pentagon to sign his executive order preventing immigrants from entering the U.S. soil for a period of time.

As soon as the order was put into action on Friday night, it was applied in airports all over the world.

The order was highly condemned inside and outside the country, as many Muslim Americans plan to challenge it.

At the Pentagon for a swearing-in ceremony for Defense Secretary Ret. Gen. James Mattis, Donald Trump signed two executive actions — one on rebuilding the military and one making major changes to America’s policies on refugees and immigration.

“I’m establishing new vetting measures to keep radical Islamic terrorists out of the United States,” the president told an audience at the Pentagon Friday.

The new president signed executive order on Friday titled “Protecting the Nation From Foreign Terrorist Entry Into the United States.”

“We want to ensure that we are not admitting into our country the very threats our soldiers are fighting overseas,” Trump said.

“We only want to admit those into our country who will support our country and love deeply our people,” he added.

The executive order suspends the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) for 120 days and immigration from countries with ties to terror, including Syria, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, Iran and Libya, for a period of 90 days.

The White House is drafting a presidential directive that calls on Defense Secretary Mattis to devise plans to more aggressively strike ISIS, which could include American artillery on the ground in Syria and Army attack helicopters to support an assault on the group’s capital, Raqqa, officials said.

Trump will demand that the new options be presented to him within 30 days, the officials said.

During an interview with ABC News, Trump said on Wednesday that he would “absolutely do safe zones” in Syria for refugees fleeing the violence there.

In the past, American military officials have warned that such a move would escalate the American involvement in the war in Syria, something the Obama administration staunchly opposed.

Several refugees were airborne on flights on the way to the United States when the order was signed and were stopped and detained at airports.

Five Iraqi passengers and one Yemeni were barred from boarding an EgyptAir flight from Cairo to New York on Saturday.

The six passengers, bound for John F. Kennedy International Airport, were prevented from boarding EgyptAir Flight 985 at Cairo airport despite holding valid immigration visas.

The airlines flying from this part of the world are updating their travel advisories to reflect the situation.

KLM and Qatar Airways are indicating that green card holders or holders of diplomatic visas A,G, C-2 or NATO, from the seven countries are allowed to fly. Tourists and those on study visas are not.

Iran is carefully studying the new executive order limiting immigration from seven Muslim-majority countries and will take legal, political and reciprocal measures accordingly, Iran’s Foreign Affairs Ministry announced Saturday.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif didn’t specify what those measures would be, but he affirmed in a tweet that anyone with a valid visa would be welcomed.

“Unlike the U.S., our decision is not retroactive. All with valid Iranian visa will be gladly welcomed. #MuslimBan 7/7” he wrote on Twitter.

“The U.S. decision to restrict travel for Muslims to the U.S., even if for a temporary period of three months, is an obvious insult to the Islamic world and in particular to the great nation of Iran,” the Foreign Affairs Ministry statement said.

“Despite the claims of combating terrorism and keeping American people safe, it will be recorded in history as a big gift to extremists and their supporters,” added the ministry.

Iran will take “proportionate legal, consular and political action and … will take reciprocal measures in order to safeguard the rights of its citizens until the time of the removal of the insulting restrictions of the government of the United States against Iranian nationals.”

In Tehran, two travel agencies told AFP they had been instructed by Etihad Airways, Emirates and Turkish Airlines not to sell U.S. tickets or allow Iranians holding American visas to board U.S.-bound flights.

An Iranian studying in California said she could not now return because her ticket had been cancelled under the new restrictions.

“I had a ticket for Turkish Airlines on February 4, but it has been cancelled,” the girl said.

Sudan called President Donald Trump’s decision to ban entry of its citizens “very unfortunate” in light of “historic steps” taken just weeks earlier to lift sanctions for cooperation on combating terrorism, its foreign ministry said on Saturday.

“It is particularly unfortunate that this decision coincides with the two countries’ historic move to lift economic and trade sanctions … and just as economic and financial institutions as well as businessmen in the country were set to continue developing their investment projects…” a foreign ministry statement said.

Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn condemned the new measures.

“The decision is .. bad for Europe, because it’s going to strengthen even further the mistrust and hatred towards the West in the heart of the Muslim world,” he told the Sunday edition of German daily Tagesspiegel, excerpts of which were released a day in advance.

Jean-Marc Ayrault, France’s foreign minister, said during a joint news conference with his German counterpart, Sigmar Gabriel: “The reception of refugees fleeing the war, fleeing oppression, is part of our duties.”

United Nations condemned Trump’s ban on refugees and order to stop Syrians and travelers from six other Muslim-majority countries entering the U.S. amid mounting international anger.

U.N. also cautioned Trump against any move to give preferential status to particular nationalities or religions after his executive order called for minority religious groups to be fast-tracked.

The U.N. refugee agency (UNHCR) and International Organization for Migration called on the new President’s administration to continue offering asylum to people fleeing war and persecution, a right protected by international law.

“The needs of refugees and migrants worldwide have never been greater and the U.S. resettlement program is one of the most important in the world,” the two agencies said in a joint statement.

Senate Chuck Schumer, Democratic leader, responded to the order in a statement saying that “tears are running down the cheeks of the Statue of Liberty tonight as a grand tradition of America, welcoming immigrants, that has existed since America was founded has been stomped upon.”

“Taking in immigrants and refugees is not only humanitarian but has also boosted our economy and created jobs decade after decade,” Schumer continued.

He described the order as one of the most backward and nasty executive orders that the president has issued.

Senator Kamala Harris tweeted: “On #HolocaustMemorialDay, Trump restricted refugees from Muslim-majority countries. Make no mistake — this is a Muslim ban.”

There are about 3.3 million Muslims in the U.S., of the 320 million population. Last year, U.S. received 38 thousand Muslim refugee, and 12,500 Syrian refugee.

CIA: Sadeq al-Mahdi Policies Detached Sudan from the West

Former Sudanese Prime Minister al-Mahdi addresses residents displaced by the Merowe dam in Omdurman

Washington- After ousting former Sudanese President Jaafar Nimeiri in April 1985, there was a 14-month period during which a military council was in charge of the country before handing over the authority to the government of Sadeq al-Mahdi.

Two years later the CIA wanted to evaluate Mahdi’s ruling period, so a group of analysts were designated to present an evaluation to the decision-makers.

In the first few months, Mahdi tried to detach from the policy of Nimeiri. His different policy shifted Sudan from a pro-West country in foreign affairs to a neutral one, said the analysts.

The CIA documents revealed that Mahdi policies made him lose a huge part of assistance from his traditional supporters in the West, in which they reduced their economic and military aid because of his ambitions.

The Cost of Neutrality

On the internal level, the deficiency of foreign aid influenced the power of Mahdi. The deterioration of economic conditions sparked opposition against Mahdi. The CIA evaluation assumed that this deterioration was used as an excuse to attack Mahdi and his government.

CIA had concerns of ousting Mahdi within few months, but analysts did not consider this an unfortunate event but actually wanted to accelerate his ousting.

Analysts were certain that thwarting Mahdi will happen after one year, without hinting that the agency will have a role to play in that scenario. The report only said that the ousting will be for the best interest of the U.S. and the West because militants, known to be practical and more realistic, would be in power after Mahdi.

U.S. Interest in Palestinian Presence in Sudan

U.S. documents revealed that the CIA showed huge interest in the Palestinian presence in Sudan since Sudan was among the Arab countries chosen to host Palestinians displaced from Lebanon after the Israeli invasion in 1982.

Secret Action in Free Society

Although the CIA possesses huge potentials, yet the information provided by the analysts on the Sudanese issue seems shallow or below the expectations pinned on such an agency of rich information storage.

But still, what can the CIA know other than what the Sudanese citizen does? Sudan is naturally an open country where citizens are used to transparency and practicing political activities openly without hiding secrets from people.

CIA: Bin Laden Opposes Ousting Ali Abdullah Saleh

CIA

Washington – An ISIS official sent al-Qaeda Leader Osama bin Laden a letter inciting him to take action as it was the perfect time for the organization to lay hand over Sana’a. Bin Laden perceived that establishing an Islamic state in Yemen is now supported by adequate conditions, but he did not find this idea favorable and replied in a letter, whose draft was later on found by the CIA when raiding his place of residence in May 2011.

In his letter, Bin Laden disclosed that al-Qaeda is keen that former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh remains in presidency and that the organization’s interest is embodied in maintaining peace with Saleh although seen as a disbeliever by al-Qaeda.

As for initial reasons, “We should quit thinking regionally. True, there are Sykes–Picot borders but all these borders will vanish when establishing an Islamic state.”

Practical Obstacles

Osama bin Laden called for being rational and not rushing in the establishment of an Islamic state in Yemen because “it will collapse by siege, poverty and negotiations with tribes’ sheikhs to fight us.”

“People perceive the concept of a state in a way that makes the state obliged to provide jobs, something which we can’t do at this stage,” continued bin Laden in his letter. He warned that any Islamic state will face a revolution within days of establishing it, regardless if people support it or not, due to lack of food which means their death.

Al-Qaeda Benefits from Saleh

“I would like to trigger one basic issue, the U.S. and Gulf were in a quest to change the regime of Saleh. This means that they see him an ineligible and they are aware of the huge financial and administrative corruption that urged the spread of Islamic attitudes,” the letter said.

It added, “We can’t spread our message amidst chaos. A country of no ruler to settle security will extract the aggressiveness in people who will have one priority: to protect themselves and their dignity.”

Bin Laden was Right

Bin Laden said several times in his letter that Gulf countries “will not leave the region’s countries without a ruler”. He added, “We support eradication of financial and administrative corruption. People are free to demand their rights. We contribute with the people in objectively criticizing the government without hinting on Saleh being an agent.

CIA Expects Downfall of Syria after Hafez al-Assad

CIA

Washington- CIA interest in the future of Syria began long time ago – the agency analysts expected stability to collapse once the late Syrian president Hafez al-Assad is gone, which turned out to be true.

Several reports and analyses were made on Syria, according to the recently declassified files by CIA, tackling the number of heart attacks and colds that Assad suffered from, determining the figures qualified to come after and discussing the fate of the country in case Sunnites complaints over marginalization increased.

One of the earliest documents in the CIA files on Syria is a memorandum that was submitted to decision makers in Washington on 7 November 1978. The memorandum mentions that Assad has remained in presidency the longest period since Syria’s independence in 1964.

CIA analysts were right when they attributed maintaining stability in Syria to the personality of Assad because he remained a president until his death in 2000.

Causes behind CIA Concerns

The memorandum summarized the concerns analysts have towards Syria in three points:

First: Although Assad achieved compulsive stability on the short-term but the regime will not be safe on the long-run due to the oppression that the majority senses.

Second: The Syrian intervention in Lebanon was not welcomed by Syrians or even Lebanese. Thirty months after the intervention, it seemed like it will remain forever and will continue to exasperate their resources without any forthcoming solution.

Third: Complaints among Syrian army soldiers started to surface, though it has not become a rebel or a demand to withdraw. Still, it is not an assuring indicator to Assad and might lead to a division in the Syrian army.

Scenarios of a Change in Syria

Memorandum writers mentioned prime possibilities of a political change in Syria. The first possibility is that Assad will die due to his health condition or an assassination. The second possibility is the downfall of the regime by a national rebel or military coup.

Assad Departure, Israel Loss

The intelligence memorandum concluded that the departure of Assad will have a negative influence not on the local Syrian level only but also regionally and internationally including the peace process in the Middle East, especially if the departure of Assad occurred surprisingly without the existence of a qualified alternative.