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World, Regional Powers Meet in Vienna to Solve Syria Impasse | ASHARQ AL-AWSAT English Archive 2005 -2017
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Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (L), U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (C) and United Nations special envoy on Syria Staffan de Mistura (R) attend the ministerial meeting on Syria in Vienna, Austria, May 17, 2016. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger

World and regional powers are meeting in Vienna to solve the deadlock between the tenaciously divided Syrian factions that has led to the rise of extremists and claimed hundreds of thousands of lives since violence turned to war five years ago.

But the gathering is not expected to substantially advance efforts to find peace. “We must find a way back into the political process … It’s about improving the conditions for the ceasefire and humanitarian aid so as to win the opposition over to negotiate with the regime in Geneva,” Germany’s foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said.

Steinmeier spoke with journalists before the United States, Russia, European powers and Middle Eastern states opened talks aiming to revive a February “cessation of hostilities” agreement that managed to reduce fighting for almost two months.

Tuesday’s talks include U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, as well as foreign ministers or their deputies from more than 20 countries.

The talks also come as the U.S.- Russia stalemate on Syria frustrates European powers, with the Obama administration’s failing to convince Moscow that Head of the Syrian regime Bashar al-Assad must go.

Diplomats say the issue is fueling European frustration at being sidelined in efforts to end the country’s five-year civil war.

Some analysts question whether the United States has misread Russia’s desire to keep Assad in power.

“Many have consistently underestimated Russia’s determination to prevent this regime from falling,” said Philip Gordon, a former National Security Council aide to U.S. President Barack Obama. “They’ve been pretty clear that they’re not prepared to let this happen.”

Ahead of the Tuesday meeting of the 17-nation group backing Syria peace talks in Vienna, a senior U.N. diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Europeans “tend to be pretty skeptical about the U.S.-Russia bilateralism.”

He said there were creative ways to provide for a transition away from Assad to give Syrian opposition groups a reason to stop fighting and start negotiating.

“But we haven’t got anywhere near having that discussion with the Syrians themselves because the U.S. and Russia have been trying to bridge the gap, and they haven’t been able to do so,” said the diplomat. “So that’s why we have got to come back and multilateralize this.”

While some acknowledge that U.S.-Russian cooperation has delivered a patchwork of partial ceasefires and U.N. Security Council resolutions, the divide over Assad has proven too big to bridge and stalled U.N.-led efforts to negotiate peace agreement.

“If we recall how (U.S. Secretary of State John) Kerry committed himself on this… it was with the hope and conviction that the Russians would relatively quickly get some commitments from the regime to engage in a political process. This never happened,” said a senior Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the political differences.

As a result, prospects remain bleak for an early end to a conflict that began in 2011 and now has claimed more than 250,000 lives.

One of the main problems, diplomats say, is the U.S. administration’s inability – or unwillingness – to confront an increasingly aggressive Russia. Some have suggested Washington lost whatever leverage on Moscow it might have had by failing to follow through on Obama’s 2013 threat to punish Syria for its alleged use of chemical weapons.

“I’m realistic. I see Americans who aren’t especially combative or ready to put much on the table that would convince the opposition to return to negotiations,” said a senior European diplomat in Vienna.

Some Syrian opposition representatives, Arab and U.N. officials have complained that the United States often has put more pressure on the rebels to compromise instead of pushing Russia to sway the Syrian government.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir signaled that Riyadh is not pinning its hopes on the United States convincing Russia to remove Assad and suggested a push to make sure opposition fighters were better armed might be needed.

“The choice is Bashar al-Assad’s,” he told reporters in Paris last week. “He will be removed, either through a political process or through military force.”